Much was made of US annualized 6.9% real GDP growth in Q4 2021, much higher than 2.3% in Q3 and well above forecasts of 5.5%. It was the strongest GDP growth in five quarters. But this headline figure hid some serious holes in the ‘growth story’. The biggest contribution to that 6.9% points came from inventory stocking (4.9% pts) – apparently car dealers restocking vehicles still to sell. Household spending contributed 2.2% points and business investment just 0.28% pts. Net exports (exports minus imports) contributed nothing; and government spending made a negative contribution of 0.5% pts (as taxes outstripped spending). Leaving out inventories, the US economy expanded by just 2% in Q4. Over the whole of 2021, the US economy jumped 5.7% after contracting 3.4% in 2020. US real GDP is now 3.1% higher than in pre-COVID 2019, but still 1.2% pts behind where GDP would have been if there had been no COVID slump.